In the half year of 2019, the overall performance of the base oil market was unsatisfactory, prices continued to slump, the contradiction between supply and demand of the market intensified, and the oil consumption of downstream end users was shrinking. Where will the market go and when will the price rebound? When will the demand rebound?
Supply side: In the second half of the year, the market output will be flat. Liaoning Haihua plans to start in mid 7, and the output is expected to recover at around 15000 tons. Zhonghai Taizhou special oil Technology Co., Ltd. 100 thousand tons of white oil plant plans to start in July, Taining, Iraq can start in August, when the white oil market output is expected to increase. Henan Jun Heng 400 thousand ton two category hydrogenation plan starts in August. In the third quarter, output continued to increase. But at present, new materials in the Yellow River are being shut down and overhauled, and Weifang Shida university is in a state of continuous maintenance. 。
New capacity statistics of base oil
Demand side: Market demand is not expected to fluctuate too much. According to the National Bureau of statistics, sales volume of auto industry in 2019 is basically on a downward trend, with an average decline of around 15%. And the downstream businesses of base oil are mostly fixed. Yield to base The purchase of base oil is mainly just demand, avoiding risks reasonably and wait-and-see attitude.
Industrial production situation : In 2019, the domestic industrial growth value increased by 5.4 over the same period last year. Most of the end users of lubricating oil enterprises are concentrated in some industries and regions that need rectification. Taking chemical enterprises as the example, part of the unregulated chemical enterprises and petrochemical enterprises are facing the policy impact of relocation and shut-down. The impact of the three year action plan on the national pollution prevention and control campaign has spread to dozens of provinces and regions, and the output of some small and medium-sized factories has shrunk significantly this year.
lower The contradiction between supply and demand in the half year is still more prominent and hard to support. But after the first half of the turmoil, demand will gradually stabilize in the second half of the year. The users of terminal oil will be gradually started in the second half of the year after the end of the rectification, and the demand for lubricating oil will be driven at that time. As a whole, the price of oil is expected to rebound slightly.